This weekend is the first so far where it appeared that everyone was behaving as if things had gone back to normal. I had to pick up moving supplies yesterday. Traffic seemed up, which Apple’s mobility data confirms:
Parking lots were full. The farmer’s market was bustling. Very few people were wearing masks or trying to maintain any sort of distance from one another. That made me wonder how Missouri is doing in terms of active cases:
Not good. Not good at all.
I’m not the first to wonder about the correlation between movement and active cases.
R represents the rate of transmission. This Twitter thread has a good breakdown of how this correlation was calculated.
If it’s accurate, we should start seeing an upward trend in new cases in roughly a week and a matching trend in deaths in about two weeks in areas where mobility has increased. Major spikes should appear by early June.
Places that I’m particularly interested in: Iowa (driving +33%), South Dakota (+66%), North Dakota (+28%), Oklahoma (+22%), Arkansas (+27%), Alaska (+40%), Idaho (+46%), Montana (+53%), Wyoming (+42%), Utah (+35%), South Carolina (+23%), Alabama (+24%), Mississippi (+22%).
With the exception of Montana, all of these states have Republican governors. This is not a coincidence.